Rolling wave planning

Rolling wave or moving window planning is based on the fact that projects are progressively elaborated. When we start a project we have very less information and as the project progresses, we gain more insight into the project. This is true with all projects.

Rolling Wave Planning is a project management technique that involves detailed planning for the near term while progressively planning for the longer term as the project evolves. The concept is based on the idea that the further a project is from execution, the less certain the details are, and therefore, the planning process needs to be iterative and flexible.

In essence, Rolling Wave Planning focuses on breaking the project into phases or segments and then planning those phases in greater detail as they approach. This approach allows project teams to remain adaptable and make more accurate plans as the project’s scope becomes clearer.

Key Characteristics of Rolling Wave Planning:

Phased Planning:
- The project is divided into multiple phases (or waves), and for each phase, the planning process becomes progressively more detailed as you get closer to the start of that phase.
- Early in the project, only high-level plans are developed for distant work, while detailed planning is carried out for work that is imminent.
Near-Term Focus:
- The most detailed planning occurs for the activities that are scheduled to take place in the near term (typically the next 2–4 weeks).
- Work that is further out in time is planned with more general outlines or higher-level deliverables, and as time progresses, these plans are updated and refined.
Progressive Elaboration:
- As work is carried out, more details are added to the plans for future work.
- This allows project managers to gather better information, assess risks, and allocate resources more efficiently as the project unfolds.
Adaptability:
- Rolling Wave Planning is flexible and allows project teams to adjust the plan as conditions change. For example, if an unforeseen issue arises in the near term, the team can modify the long-term plan accordingly.
Stakeholder Engagement:
- The technique requires ongoing communication with project stakeholders. As more information becomes available and plans evolve, updates and changes are communicated to the stakeholders to ensure everyone is aligned.

How Rolling Wave Planning Works

Example:

Consider a large construction project, such as building a commercial office building. Here’s how Rolling Wave Planning might be applied:

Initial High-Level Plan (Phase 1 – Conceptual Planning):
- At the outset of the project, a high-level project schedule and work breakdown structure (WBS) are developed.
- The team might know general tasks like site preparation, foundation work, and building structure, but they don’t have the detailed specifics yet.
- Key milestones and deliverables are identified, but the details (e.g., specific tasks, resources, and durations) for each phase aren’t fully worked out yet.
- Cost estimates and timeframes may be rough estimates based on past projects or initial scoping.
Rolling Wave Planning for the Near-Term Work (Phase 2 – Detailed Planning):
- As the project moves closer to the start of specific tasks (e.g., the excavation phase), the team starts detailing the work for that immediate phase, such as:
  - Resource allocation (who will do what, what equipment is needed)
  - Safety measures (hazards related to excavation)
  - Specific work sequences (how to proceed with excavation, foundation preparation, etc.)
  - Detailed timelines (specific workdays for each task)
- Meanwhile, work for later phases (e.g., electrical installation or finishing) is still planned at a high level.
Update and Refine Plans for Future Phases (Phase 3 – Ongoing Detail Development):
- As the excavation work begins and progresses, the project team starts refining plans for the next phase (e.g., foundation pouring, structural steel work) based on the actual progress of earlier phases.
- Risks and challenges that arose during excavation (e.g., unforeseen subsurface conditions) might affect the planning for future phases, and adjustments are made accordingly.
- Plans for the second wave of work are refined and broken down into more specific tasks, deadlines, and resource requirements.
Continuous Review and Adjustment:
- As the project continues, the planning cycle moves forward, with the near-term tasks always being refined in more detail, and future phases gradually becoming more detailed as the project progresses.

Benefits of Rolling Wave Planning

Flexibility: Rolling Wave Planning provides the flexibility to adapt to changing conditions, whether due to unforeseen issues, changes in scope, or new insights gained as work progresses. This approach reduces the risk of wasted effort and rework that can happen with over-detailed early-stage planning.
Reduced Uncertainty: By allowing planning to be done in phases, uncertainty about long-term requirements can be addressed as the project moves forward. Early in the project, there’s no need to make detailed plans for work that may be months away, especially if that work could change.
Improved Accuracy: Detailed planning happens closer to execution, which allows for more accurate predictions regarding resources, timelines, and costs for upcoming tasks. As the project evolves, more precise data can be used, reducing reliance on assumptions.
Better Resource Allocation: The project team can allocate resources more effectively by focusing on what’s needed immediately, avoiding the risk of over-allocating resources for tasks that are still far off.
Stakeholder Confidence: As the plan becomes more detailed over time, stakeholders gain confidence that the project is being managed effectively. They can see how the plan is evolving and track progress against more accurate schedules.
Focus on Immediate Priorities: By breaking the project into manageable segments and focusing on the tasks at hand, teams can prioritize critical tasks and minimize distractions.

Challenges of Rolling Wave Planning

Risk of Over-Optimism: As the plan evolves, there’s a risk that the project team may underestimate the complexity or challenges of later phases, based on the success of earlier tasks. It’s important to continually review and adjust plans based on real data.
Resource Constraints: If resources (e.g., skilled workers, equipment) are overcommitted early on, it may limit flexibility when future phases require more resources. Effective resource forecasting and management are essential.
Communication and Coordination: Since the plan is continuously evolving, it’s crucial to maintain strong communication across all teams to ensure that everyone stays updated on changes and developments.
Documentation and Tracking: The continuous evolution of plans requires diligent tracking and documentation to ensure that updates are communicated effectively to all stakeholders.

When to Use Rolling Wave Planning

Rolling Wave Planning is most effective in projects that:

Have a long timeline with many stages of work, such as construction projects, large-scale infrastructure projects, or research and development projects.
Are complex and have high uncertainty in terms of scope, resources, or conditions, where detailed planning for the entire project is difficult or inefficient.
Require flexibility to adapt as the project progresses, especially in projects where detailed planning in the early stages could lead to unnecessary rework or wasted effort.

Summary:

In Rolling Wave Planning, the focus is on progressively detailing and adjusting the project plan as work progresses, based on the most current information available. It is an iterative approach where you plan in greater detail the work that is about to be executed and progressively refine the planning for later work as it becomes clearer and more defined. This allows for flexibility, better resource allocation, and improved risk management in complex and long-duration projects.